Sam Darnold’s Uncertain Future with the Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold, the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback, finds himself at a crossroads after what could be a pivotal season for his career. Over the last few games of the season, Darnold’s performance raised questions about his future, both with the Vikings and in the NFL at large. While some of his recent performances may have hurt his financial outlook, it seems unlikely that it will cost him his potential payday in 2024.

Sam Darnold’s 2024 Contract Expectations

The future of Sam Darnold, whether with the Minnesota Vikings or elsewhere, remains uncertain as he enters free agency. The Vikings have until mid-March to extend him before he hits the open market, and if they don’t act, Darnold will have the opportunity to explore his options. Despite the ups and downs of his season, Darnold’s 2024 campaign is projected to be his most lucrative yet in his seven-year NFL career. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Darnold ranks as the ninth-best free agent heading into the offseason, and the site projects he could sign a three-year contract worth $41.25 million annually, totaling $123.75 million, with $70 million fully guaranteed.

Is Darnold a Starting QB or Just a Bridge Player?

The ongoing debate surrounding Sam Darnold focuses on whether he can be more than just a bridge quarterback. While his raw statistics, including over 4,300 passing yards and 35 touchdowns, are impressive, his performance in key moments has been inconsistent. PFF highlights that Darnold’s 31 “big-time throws” were offset by 21 turnover-worthy plays, pointing to a mixed record in high-pressure situations. Despite these flaws, Darnold’s ability to throw for significant yardage and put up impressive touchdown numbers makes him a potentially valuable asset for any team looking to add a veteran quarterback.

Darnold’s Strong Market Despite NFL Weaknesses

If Darnold does hit free agency, he should find a strong market for his services. The 2024 draft and free-agent classes are considered weak in terms of quarterback talent, with only two collegiate quarterbacks receiving first-round grades. With teams like the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, who pick at No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, both in need of a starting quarterback, the market for free agents like Darnold is more favorable than usual. Other teams, such as the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and New York Jets, could also show interest in adding Darnold to their roster, depending on how their own offseason plans unfold. Even teams lower down the draft board, like the Pittsburgh Steelers, could potentially be in the mix.

Darnold is by far the highest-ranked quarterback in the free-agent pool, with Justin Fields, who ranks 19th overall, trailing him by a significant margin. This means that Darnold’s value will remain high even if some of his recent performances have raised questions about his consistency.

J.J. McCarthy’s Impact on Darnold’s Future with the Vikings

The arrival of rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy complicates Darnold’s situation with the Vikings. Minnesota selected McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the previous draft, and while his rookie season was affected by a knee injury, the Vikings had high expectations for him. Initially, the Vikings signed Darnold as a one-year, bridge quarterback with the understanding that McCarthy would be the franchise’s future leader.

However, Darnold’s performance, especially in leading the Vikings to 14 regular season wins, has made the team’s decision on whether to extend him a more difficult one. McCarthy, still on his rookie contract, presents a cost-effective solution for the Vikings in the coming seasons. As McCarthy is five years younger than Darnold and locked into a relatively inexpensive deal with a team option through 2028, the Vikings could decide to roll with him as their starting quarterback.

Given McCarthy’s low-cost contract and his potential for growth, it’s likely that Minnesota will choose to go with McCarthy over paying a premium to keep Darnold. If the Vikings do opt to go with McCarthy, they could look to sign a veteran quarterback like Daniel Jones, who was available mid-season after being released by the Giants. Jones could serve as a backup or competition for McCarthy at a fraction of the cost it would take to retain Darnold.

A Likely Departure for Darnold

With a glut of quarterback-needy teams around the NFL and the Vikings’ uncertain stance on Darnold’s future, it is more likely that Darnold will be playing elsewhere in 2024. Whether or not the Vikings extend him, it seems as though another team will offer him a lucrative deal that could exceed what Minnesota is willing to pay for a potential backup quarterback.

In conclusion, while Sam Darnold’s future with the Minnesota Vikings remains unclear, he is poised to enter the 2024 season with a much better financial outlook than previous years. Regardless of where he lands, Darnold’s strong performance this season has positioned him to earn one of the highest-paying contracts among free-agent quarterbacks. Whether he remains in Minnesota or moves on to a new team, Darnold’s future in the NFL looks brighter than ever before.