Week 16 in the NFL’s 2024 season was not a helpful one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their quest for a fourth straight division title and a fifth straight invitation to the postseason dance. However, the Buccaneers still have a clear path to both goals and, if they can take care of their own business over the next two weeks, would just need a little bit of outside help.

The two most critical outcomes for the Buccaneers on Sunday was their own prime time loss in Dallas coupled with Atlanta’s win over the New York Giants earlier in the day. That shifted the control in the NFC South race back to the Falcons after the Bucs had been in the driver’s seat for the previous two weeks. In addition, wins by the Los Angeles Rams and Washington Commanders had negative effects on potential playoff seeding and Tampa Bay’s slim remaining shot at a Wild Card berth if it can’t catch Atlanta.

Besides their own home game against the Carolina Panthers, the key game for the Buccaneers in Week 17 is Atlanta at Washington. A win by the Commanders would give the Bucs a chance to reestablish control over the NFC South; much less desirably but still worth noting, a win by Atlanta would keep the Bucs’ shot at the third Wild Card spot alive.

Only nine teams are left in contention for seven NFC playoff spots. Looking ahead to Week 17, here’s how that race stands after 16 weeks:

The Lions scored another 34 points in Week 16 even without running back David Montgomery, and finding the end zone is becoming so routine to them that they’re spicing things up by designing plays that purposely look like they are failing only to end up as touchdowns. Detroit also enjoyed Washington’s comeback win over the Eagles, which all but eliminated Philadelphia from contention for the first-round bye. The Athletic pegs the Lions’ chances of getting that top seed at 66%, with the only real competition coming from within its own division. The Lions play host to the Vikings in Week 18 and that game could decide both the NFC North champion and the team that gets to cool its heels during the first round of the playoffs. Alternately, if the Lions beat the 49ers next Monday and the Vikings lose in Green Bay on Sunday, Detroit could reach both of those goals in Week 17.

The Eagles not only killed most of their shot at a first-round bye with their last-second loss in Washington but also failed to wrap up the NFC East title, which has seemed like a foregone conclusion for weeks. Washington kept within two games of the Eagles with that outcome, but The Athletic still gives Philly a 98% shot to win the division. All the Eagles need over the last two weeks for the division crown is a win at home against Dallas or at the Giants, or a Washington loss to either Atlanta (at home) or Dallas (on the road). The concussion suffered by quarterback Jalen Hurts early in the loss to Washington definitely muddies the water but the Eagles should be favored in their last two games, and heavily so against the Giants, who currently own the first pick in next year’s draft.

Things have gone very well for the Rams in recent weeks, and they got another big boost on Sunday when they beat the Jets in the Meadowlands and Seattle lost a barnburner to the Vikings. Los Angeles had taken over the top spot in the NFC West the week before but that was based on a tiebreaker edge; now they are a game clear of Seattle and also have a Week Nine win over the Seahawks in their bag. Of course, those two teams meet again in Week 18, so there is still a lot of intrigue left in the West race. It’s also possible that game means nothing, if the Rams beat Arizona next week at home and Seattle loses a third straight game in Chicago. With the Bucs’ loss, Los Angeles moved up a spot to the third seed in the overall NFC standings, making them the third different team to occupy that position in the last three weeks.

The Falcons’ Week Five overtime win over the Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium remains the most significant outcome of the season for both teams, as it was the beginning of a head-to-head sweep that has given Atlanta a sledgehammer of a tiebreaker should the two teams finish with the same record. The Buccaneers had a three-point lead with just over a minute left in regulation of that Thursday night contest but the since-deposed Kirk Cousins engineered a 46-yard drive to set up Younghoe Koo’s game-tying 52-yard field goal and the home team won on the first possession of overtime. As such, Atlanta now has a chance to clinch the division this coming weekend with a win in Washington and a Bucs loss to Carolina. Presumably due to that game against the 10-5 Commanders, the Falcons are still only given a 48% chance to win the NFC South by the Athletic, compared to 58% for the Buccaneers, but that’s more than double where they stood a week ago.

It’s not often that a team can be in second place in its own division with two games to go but still have a realistic shot at getting the conference’s top overall seed, but that’s exactly where Minnesota is after winning its eighth straight game on Sunday against Seattle. Even though the Vikings have the same record as the Lions, they can’t clinch anything in Week 17 (they have already clinched a playoff spot, of course). That’s because of their earlier loss to the Lions in Week Seven. Even if Minnesota beats Green Bay next Sunday and the Lions lose to San Francisco, Detroit could still come back to take the NFC North with a Week 18 win at home over the Vikings, which would complete the season sweep. The Athletic gives the Vikings a 34% shot at winning the division and a 28% shot to get that first-round bye.

Green Bay’s win over the Saints at Lambeau on Monday night clinched a playoff spot and sent the Packers back to the postseason for the fifth time in the last six years. The only thing left at stake for Green Bay is playoff seeding, as they can’t win the NFC North. They also can’t catch the Lions or Vikings, whichever doesn’t win their division, for the top Wild Card spot, which would likely set up a first-round trip to either Atlanta or Tampa Bay. They could hold on to the sixth overall seed, and most likely get a first-round trip to Los Angeles, or fall to number seven, which would set up an intra-division matchup with either Detroit or Minnesota. As such, next weekend’s game at Minnesota could be very interesting in that winning it would probably help them avoid going back to the same place to start their playoff run.

The Commanders’ thrilling comeback win over Philadelphia was bad news for the remaining NFC Wild Card contenders, Tampa Bay and Seattle. Washington is now two games up on those two teams with two to play, meaning they just need to beat either Atlanta at home or Dallas on the road to clinch that last NFC spot. Of course, the Commanders will still be gunning for the NFC East title, even if their odds of achieving it are slim. Washington’s Week 16 win did officially eliminate Dallas and San Francisco from playoff contention.

On the outside…

The Bucs’ two paths to the playoffs remain open, but the NFC South title is by far the more reasonable hope. The Athletic only gives Tampa Bay a 6% chance to get in via a Wild Card berth, which would require two wins for the Bucs and two losses by Washington. That scenario would favor the Buccaneers because they beat the Commanders in Week One. Even if it ended up as a three-way tie at 10-7 with both the Commanders and Seahawks, the Bucs would prevail in the tiebreaker due to having the best record against NFC opponents among those three clubs. Far more appealing for Tampa Bay would be a win at home against the 4-11 Panthers on Sunday coupled with an Atlanta loss in Washington. The Buccaneers would not clinch the division with that combination of events, but would regain control of their own destiny, needing only a Week 18 win at home over the 5-9 Saints or a loss that same day by Atlanta at home against the Panthers.

The Seahawks still have hope in the NFC West race thanks to that final showdown with the Rams in Los Angeles. First they would need to beat the Bears in Chicago this coming weekend, which would make that Week 18 game a winner-take-all contest if the Rams were to lose to Arizona in Week 17. If the Rams beat Arizona to remain one up on Seattle heading into Week 18, a Seahawks win in the finale could set up a deep dive into the NFL’s tiebreaker hierarchy, perhaps all the way down the two team’s strength of victory figures.

Eliminated from NFC playoff race: Dallas (7-8), Arizona (7-8), San Francisco (6-9), New Orleans (5-10), Chicago (4-11), Carolina (4-11), N.Y. Giants (2-13)

What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:

As noted above, the Buccaneers will finish off their regular-season schedule at home, with intra-division rematches with the 4-11 Panthers and 5-10 Saints, two teams they defeated on the road earlier in the season. They almost certainly will need to win both of those games to maintain a shot at the division title, and would definitely have to capture them both to keep their slim Wild Card hopes alive. The Buccaneers and Panthers kick off at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday, December 29 at Raymond James Stadium.