Almost everyone agrees the 49ers have had the worst offseason of any team in the NFL.

And yet, most people still believe the 49ers will bounce back next season and make the playoffs. Why?

We’re talking about a team that went 6-11 last season and just lost nine starters including Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga. Those are impact players and the 49ers replaced none of them.

But the 49ers still have Fred Warner, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Jauan Jennings, Nick Bosa, Deommodore Lenoir and Brock Purdy. Those are eight good players. Plus, they have 11 picks in the upcoming draft. Plus, they have Kyle Shanahan, who is supposed to be an elite head coach.

So if the 49ers have another good draft class like the one they had last year, and if Shanahan coaches up to his standard, and if the 49ers have better injury luck next season, lots of people believe the 49ers will be Super Bowl contenders once again.

But the injury excuse is revisionist history.

The 49ers weren’t good last season even when Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk were healthy. The only player who truly missed almost the entire season was McCaffrey who had bilateral Achilles tendonitis and a torn PCL.

Which means the only major additions the 49ers will have this year are McCaffrey, assuming he stays healthy, and a bunch of rookies.

If McCaffrey plays like he did in 2023, the 49ers offense will be excellent, but the defense still could struggle if it has to start three rookies on the D-line. And there’s no guarantee McCaffrey ever will be dominant again. He’ll turn 29 in June.

Any 49ers optimism for 2025 assumes that lots of rookies will play well this year.

Forgive me if I have my doubts.